Today’s Matters: Republicans have the ‘Mo’
1. We're another week closer to the general election, now just 65 days away, which is forever in politics. However, there is a distinct direction the populace is headed in: RIGHT. State Representative Kevin Yoder is celebrating on his Facebook page about how the 3rd U.S. Congressional District now 'leans Republican' according to CQ Politics. And for good reason: polling and primary turnout across the country shows Republicans are more enthusiastic, quite possibly twice as excited to vote as their Democratic counterparts - the opposite of the 2006 midterms.
Steve Kraske reports on Prime Buzz:
Charlie Cook, the most respected forecaster in the political stratosphere, is standing by his prediction that Republicans will take back the House in November. They need 39 seats. Cook estimates a 35-45 seat gain for the GOP. But, he adds, he’s being conservative.
“The odds of it being higher than that range are a lot better than lower,” Cook told The Wall Street Journal.
While we’re talking about Cook, his non-partisan Cook Political Report reported last week that it’s now monitoring 120 House races. That’s the “the largest playing field we’ve seen in years.”
In 2006, Cook watched 75 competitive races; in 2004, it was 64. Here’s the clincher: 102 of the 120 seats being monitored are Democrat-held.
What does this mean? Well, besides Cook's national prediction that Republicans will re-take the House of Representatives in November, the Republican wave has twice the strength in Kansas: not only are voters reacting to a Democratic presidential administration, they are also reacting to eight years of Democratic executive control in Kansas, under Governors Mark Parkinson and Kathleen Sebelius.
Thus, not only is retiring Senator Sam Brownback in excellent shape to become the next governor of Kansas, but so are candidates like State Rep. Yoder and Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins, who would typically face tough races in fairly divided districts, and State Senator Derek Schmidt, who is running against state Attorney General Steve Six, who has done a quietly respectable job since being appointed to the office nearly four years ago. However, State Sen. Schmidt, the Republican Senate Majority Leader, has an enormous lead, primarily due to his party affiliation, par for the course this cycle. (Katie Stockstill of Prairie Politics has the story and its implications in statewide races this fall.)
2. Democratic State House candidate Dan Manning of the state's 91st District, an openly gay man, came home from work last Saturday morning with a death threat taped to his door.
The note was created with letters cut from newspapers and other publications, and it noted that he’s a candidate for the House. It said “Will DIE,” “Kill,” “MURDER” and “Head OFF.” It also used two derogatory references to homosexuality.
Manning said he checked his doors and windows to make sure he was safe. He said he immediately reported the note to Wichita police.
Capt. Joe Dessenberger said police have not identified any witnesses or suspects. The letter is being checked for fingerprints.
No additional word has been released since last week.
3. State Representative Raj Goyle, Democratic candidate for U.S. Congressman in Kansas' 4th District, released a new TV ad, last week:
In related news, Wichitopekington has an interesting blog entry on the redundancy of State Rep. Goyle and opponent Mike Pompeo's campaigns.
4. The Wichita Eagle Editorial Blog lauds Sen. Brownback's goals for Kansas aviation in this short blog post yesterday.
5. Amelia Earhart, the famed female pilot from Atchison, Kansas, may soon "land" in the U.S. Capitol. A statue of Earhart was chosen to represent Kansas (two statues represent each state in the Capitol) nearly 11 years ago by the State Legislature, though the statue was never commissioned. The group Equal Visibility Everywhere is now working to change that.
Today’s Matters: Do Democrats have a chance?
1. In a new SurveyUSA poll, Republicans lead big in statewide races. The smallest margin for a Republican over a Democrat in the races for U.S. Senate, Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Treasurer, and Insurance Commissioner? 20 percentage points. Ouch.
This isn't much of surprise, however, as Red Kansas simply reacts first to an 8-year run of Democratic governors, second to a Democratic presidential administration. Democrats might need to start preparing for 2012 already, focusing on the State House.
2. State Representative Kevin Yoder has proposed six debates with fellow Third District U.S. Congressional candidate Stephene Moore, according to Prime Buzz. Yoder wants a response by Monday.
1) Kansas City Chamber of Commerce, noon Sept. 17.
2) TBA at the Sheraton Overland Park.
3) University of Kansas debate, 7 p.m. Sept. 27.
4) Johnson County Community College, hosted by a coalition of organizations including the Kansas City Star and League of Women Voters of Johnson County, 7 p.m. Oct. 7.
5) Jewish Community Center, hosted by the Jewish Community Relations Bureau/ American Jewish Committee, 7p.m. Oct. 13.
6) Shawnee Mission East High School, hosted by the SME Student Council, The SME Harbinger student news publication, and the student councils of several other local public high schools, 7 p.m. Oct. 20.
3. In related news, former State Representative Patricia Lightener, Yoder’s primary opponent in a Republican field that featured nine competitors, has formally thrown her support behind the Republican nominee.
In other Yoder news, Moore has gone after him over his proposed budget from the latest legislative session, which would not have increased funding to state K-12 education.
Related is a blog entry from Voice for Liberty in Wichita author Bob Weeks explaining the Right’s side to school spending – fairly solid information about where the money comes from. Meanwhile, Dome on the Range calls out Senator Sam Brownback for a lack of detail on changing the state school finance formula, something he’s spoken of doing on the campaign trail for governor.
4. Fair tax, or not? According to Prime Buzz, State Rep. Yoder does not support the Fair Tax. However, this video from the KDP suggests otherwise – that Yoder has said publicly he’s against it, but privately he’s said the opposite…
5. In Kansas' Fourth District, Bob Weeks has broken down the race between Mike Pompeo v. State Representative Raj Goyle on where their campaign contributions come from.
6. Democrats for Brownback land an important member from a strong Democratic family from Wyandotte County. Steve Kraske of the KC Star explains.
7. Freemont, Nebraska will have to raise property taxes to pay Kansas Secretary of State candidate Kris Kobach for his services in defending an immigration ordinance.
Praire Politics also reports that the statistics concerning the problem of voter fraud in Kansas “don’t match” the message Kobach has been offering.
8. Praire Politics: Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gray released an education plan two days ago as the little known candidate shifts his campaign into gear.
Four more surveys
Candidates for the Kansas House of Representatives:
Roberta Eveslage (D - 39), Zach Ketteman (D - 81), Jim Faris (D - 47), and William Prescott (R - 59). Page one for each is on the left, page two the right. Links to previous surveys received can be found at the following link. Not sure if any of these people are seeking your vote? Use this program to find out.
Today’s Matters: Quiet before the storm
Just one week from the primary election in Kansas. Oddly enough, as candidates busy about the state greeting supporters and corralling votes, the news cycle has calmed. Sounds like the calm before a great thunderstorm on the plains (I've missed those in my European travel); then again, maybe everything has been said and revealed? To the news...
1. Senator Sam Brownback, the leading candidate for governor, reported that he had raised over $2 million in his campaign, including $500,000 since January 1st. State Senator Tom Holland, Brownback's likely Democratic opponent, has raised close to $300,000 in his five month candidacy, leaving him in an unfavorable position (especially considering the tilt of this year's election cycle both nationally and within the state and Brownback's vast advantage in name recognition). However, I've mentioned before how one can only admire Holland's political courage in a race any Democrat would be hard pressed to contend, let alone win.
2. In another campaign finance related note, State Treasurer Dennis McKinney, former Minority Leader in the Kansas House, has a lopsided fiscal lead over his Republican opponent, Sedgwick County Treasurer Ron Estes. In reports filed by the campaigns on Monday, McKinney had almost $175,000 cash on hand against Estes' $1,300 (from a puny $5,400 in contributions - nearly $1,400 from the candidate himself). The two are the only candidates in the race.
2. Democratic U.S. House candidate Stephene Moore is a part of a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee plan, a "$28 million investment in television advertising for the final weeks of the fall campaign," reported the New York Times. Moore is the only non-incumbent involved in the ad buy, though she is running to retain the seat held by her husband, Congressman Dennis Moore, for the last 12 years.
3. Republican Secretary of State candidate J.R. Claeys has a new ad out about requiring ID cards when voting in Kansas. The issue makes sense - immigration has become a big issue as a result of the Arizona law passed earlier this year, but the delivery, especially in a race with it's author, fellow GOP SoS candidate Kris Kobach, seems bound to fail.
What's more for Claeys, is that Shawnee County Election Commissioner Elizabeth Ensley has staked out the moderate role in the race, receiving the endorsements of former Secretaries of State Ron Thornburg and Bill Graves.
4. Paij Rutschman, Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in the 4th District, was the subject a Wichita Eagle yesterday.
4. From Prime Buzz:
This slipped under the radar: Save the Children says Missouri and Kansas are among the worst states in preparation for natural and man-made disasters and their effects on kids.
“Five years (after Katrina), the United States remains seriously and unnecessarily unprepared to protect children when they are most vulnerable during major disasters,” the report says.
In a report attached below, the group sets up four disaster preparedness criteria: a plan for evacuating kids in child care, reunifying families after a disaster, dealing with children with special needs, and an evacuation plan for schools.
Missouri and Kansas meet none of the group’s standards. Seven states, in total, came up zero.
Yikes.
Scroll to the bottom to download the attachment.
Dole Institute marks former Senator’s birthday
From the Dole Institute of Politics:
Today is Bob Dole's 87th birthday!
On July 22, 1923, Doran and Bina Dole celebrated the birth of their second child, Robert. Growing up in Russell, Kan., Bob and his three siblings learned the value of hard work. This work ethic guided Bob as a lietenant in the U.S. Army and in his 46 year-long political career, which began with his election to the Kansas Legislature in 1950 and ended with his retirement from the U.S. Senate as Majority Leader in 1996. His dedication to our nation continues today with his success as a senior statesman.
Please join us in celebrating Bob Dole for his lifelong dedication to public service by sending your memories and well-wishes to Senator Dole.
CLICK HERE to send him birthday greetings or reply to this email.You can also mail cards to:
Senator Bob Dole
Alston & Bird
10th Floor (The Atlantic Building)
950 F Street NW
Washington, DC 20004
Today’s Matters: Roberts talks football; Parkinson to make cameo in play
1. In the heated primary race between Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt to succeed Senator Sam Brownback, action centered around Moran yesterday, as he acted both in congruence with and opposition to Tiahrt's recent moves. First, news indicating Moran, too, had joined the recently formed Tea Party caucus in the House of Representatives was released by Moran's campaign spokesman in an e-mail.
Next, stepping away from the negative rhetoric of Tiahrt, Moran released a positive ad in the KC area:
2. Serious accusations have come out of the 4th District Republican primary between front-running candidates Wink Hartman and Mike Pompeo. It all begins with the following ad:
The Hartman campaign, which began running two nights ago in Wichita, stands firmly behind the ad featuring Daniel Lind, former owner of Machining Concepts Inc., a company that "supplied machined parts to Thayer Aerospace in the early 2000s, when Pompeo was president of the company," according to Wichitopekington.
The Pompeo campaign has reacted by calling the ad "a fraud" and asking TV stations to stop airing it. From the Wichitopekington story:
In a press conference this morning, Pompeo called the ad a “malicious attack” of a “desperate man,” and he said that Lind was paid in full — about $351,000. His campaign passed out manila envelops with an e-mail from Glenn Steele, chief operating officer of Thayer Aerospace Manufacturing (now known as Nex-Tech Aerospace), that says “all legitimate claims have been paid to all of our suppliers.” Another e-mail from Steve Becker, Chief Financial Officer of Kice Industries, who was Thayer’s controller from April 2001 to January 2005, said all suppliers were paid while he was there.
The envelopes also contained Lind’s personal bankruptcy filings, which do not list Thayer as “accounts receivable.” It’s unclear whether any business bankruptcy filings contain reference to Thayer.
“I call on Mr. Hartman to immediately release any documentation or support that he has which would substantiate the claim that is contained in that advertisement,” Pompeo said. “I will formally, within hours, ask each of the television stations that is airing this ad to remove this ad from the air if they do not have documentation satisfactorily supporting these claims.”
The Hartman campaign, however, stands by it's statements.
[Hartman campaign manager Scott] Paradise said Lind’s company filed bankruptcy and that the bank may have later collected the money Thayer owed. He said he plans to get documents from Lind as soon as possible that show Thayer had not paid its bills.
“If they ended up paying the bank, that’s fine and good,” he said. “But that doesn’t change the fact that Daniel Lind lost his company, lost his employees and lost his paycheck.”
Lind confirmed he was the person in the ad and he said he stands by his statements.
For more information, check the story yourself. Also, check out this story checking the truth of claims made by previous ads between Pompeo and Hartman. For now, no word on how this might affect Pompeo or Hartman - especially considering the assertions State Senator Jean Schodorf continues to make about how close she is to the leading men in the race.
3. Quick hits from Topeka: the $99 million budget shortfall for fiscal year 2010 and how it was made up; the preparation for "status quo budgets" from state agencies for the next fiscal year; the governor's request for the federal government to declare "an agricultural disaster" in 9 Kansas counties.
4. In lighter news, Governor Mark Parkinson will take to the stage to play the roll of Mr. Gibbs in the Topeka Civic Theater's fundraising night performance of "Arsenic and Old Lace." From the LJ-World:
Parkinson’s office said the governor has not acted before. Ironically, when he was in high school he tried out for the same part in “Arsenic and Old Lace” — and was rejected, his office said.
5. Also on the entertaining side of seriousness, a clip of Senator Pat Roberts jesting with colleague Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska about his school's jump to the Big 10 in a committee hearing. Some might find the gesture a bit upsetting - wondering why such is going on during government business, but just think if more social interaction between men like Roberts, a Republican, and Nelson, a Democrat, occurred? Perhaps there would be a much more civil debate going on, and we could all benefit from that.
Today’s Matters: Advance voting and robo-calls
1. Secretary of State Chris Biggs released the following TV advertisement encouraging early voting in the August 3rd primary. Though the registration deadline has passed for the primary (you can still register for the general election until 15 days before; so by October 19), voters can still request advance ballots up until July 30.
2. Attorney General Steve Six issued a warning to political campaigns about the use of robo-calls yesterday. The following was included in a statement from the Attorney General's office:
“Although state law does not yet allow me to protect Kansans’ privacy rights from political robo-calls, federal law authorizes me to make every effort to ensure that campaigns using robo-calls are not shrouded in secrecy,” Six said.
The Attorney General’s Office frequently receives complaints about unsolicited robo-calls. Although there is no state law restricting these automated, pre-recorded messages, the federal Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) requires robo-calls to state clearly at the beginning of the call the identity of the party responsible for initiating the call.
The call also must include the telephone number of the party initiating the call so that the person receiving the call will have an opportunity to demand not to receive any further calls. The telephone number provided may not be a 900 number or any other number for which charges exceed local or long distance transmission charges. The Kansas Attorney General’s Office is empowered to enforce the Act in Kansas. Violators of the Act may be subject to court-ordered injunctions and damages of up to $1500 per violation.
Kansans receiving robo-calls that do not comply with federal law should contact the Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division at www.ksag.org or by calling (785) 296-3751 or (800) 432-2310.
3. In the Republican U.S. Senate primary that will never go away, another Survey USA poll indicates Congressman Jerry Moran with a big lead over fellow Representative Todd Tiahrt. However, according to Prime Buzz, this is Moran's slimmest margin since March and "Among conservatives, among those with favorable opinions of the tea party movement, and among pro-life voters" the pair are now tied.
In related news, Tiahrt has joined the Tea Party caucus, chaired by Congresswoman Michelle Bachman (R-MN) to once again further his conservative credentials.
4. Eight of the nine Republican candidates in the primary for the 3rd District spoke at a gathering in Johnson County yesterday. Prime Buzz has video. Released today - a statement saying: "All nine [Republicans in the] ...race signed an agreement pledging a 'full and unconditional endorsement' for the winner of the Aug. 3 primary." Many would argue disunity is what plagued GOP nominees against Congressman Dennis Moore. None of them would like to repeat history against his wife, Stephene.
5. Forgotten yesterday was the story that Democrats retook the lead in Gallup's generic congressional ballot question 49-43 percent. Not sure what that means? Here's The Fix's explanation:
Democrats' six point margin represents a bump from the Gallup data earlier this month -- Democrat 47 percent, Republican 46 percent -- and marks the first time that Democrats have had a statistically significant edge on the question so far this election cycle.The reason for Democrats' upward movement in the poll appears to be independent voters where Republicans now hold a four point generic edge (43 percent to 39 percent), a major drop from Gallup polling earlier this month that showed the GOP with a 14-point margin.
A few caveats: 1) The generic ballot should not be taken as predictive of what is going to happen in any particular House race but rather as an broad -- though usually accurate -- indicator of which way the national wind is blowing. 2) This is one poll. Gallup has shown Republicans consistently tied or ahead in the generic ballot question and it's not clear whether these latest findings are an outlier or the start of a broader trend. 3) This is a poll of registered voters not likely voters, making it slightly less predictive about expected election outcomes.
Although the generic has clearly improved for Democrats, some of the other numbers in the poll should provide them pause about the election to come -- most notably a widening enthusiasm gap between the two parties' bases.
More than half (51 percent) of self-identifying Republicans describe themselves as "very enthusiastic" about the coming election while roughly half that number (28 percent) of Democrats say the same.
If midterm elections are about base turnout and history suggests they are that sort of base energy disparity could signal major Democratic losses in the fall -- no matter what the generic ballot says.
Figures reported on today, which indicated the financial readiness of each party's congressional campaign committees for battle this fall, create additional intrigue. While the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) outraised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) for the last three months ($21.7 million to $19.3 million) and now all of this year ($39 million to $38 million), the NRCC only has half as much on hand as the DCCC ($17 million to $34 million) leaving them as prepared as possible for the tough midterm battles ahead.
Today’s Matters: Tiahrt slings more mud; Schodorf poll confuses, again
Lots of news around the interweb today. Let's to it.
1. For starters, the Tiahrt-Moran mudfest shows no signs of slowing. Here's Tiahrt's latest shot now up on TV.
If you're confused at all as to what's going to happen in this race (it would be hard not to have seen or heard ads for the race unless you've been out of state this summer), KC Star go-to political reporter Steve Kraske offered this on Saturday:
Watch what they do, not what they say. Tihart’s campaign says the race is a statistical dead heat.
But Tiahrt is acting like he’s behind by a whole bunch more. He’s been the aggressor in the race and is pushing a slew of hard-hitting ads, including one featuring Gracia Burnham of Rose Hill, Kan.
She survived a kidnapping in the Philippines that resulted in the death of her husband, Martin. The spot knocks Moran for opposing a 2006 bill that sanctioned military tribunals to try suspected terrorists. The spot says he was “protecting” terrorists “with constitutional rights.”
“Mr. Moran, there’s no excuse for this,” Burnham says into the camera. “There just isn’t.”
Tiahrt’s big gamble is that the negative ads will raise enough doubt among voters that they turn away from Moran.
But has he been so negative that voters have begun tuning him out? Maybe.
Moran’s pollster, the respected Public Opinion Strategies, said exactly that in a memo last week. Pollster Glen Bolger could be right.
Tiahrt has one distinct advantage, and that’s what his campaign describes as an active grass-roots network of conservatives who will get out the vote on what could be a sultry Aug. 3 primary day.
That’s why Tiahrt is pushing endorsements from the big guns of American conservatism: Palin, Dobson, Ashcroft, Forbes.
The far-right activists remain the race’s wildest wild card.
Hailing from the big 1st District in western Kansas, Moran had a lead coming out of the gate. Those folks vote. One independent pollster, SurveyUSA, had Moran up 72-15 in that part of the state.
That’s huge, and it may be enough for Moran to win going away, particularly if the two candidates split in Topeka-Lawrence and over here.
In his TV ads, Tiahrt never introduced himself to voters in eastern Kansas. He came out of the gate firing, maybe because he was behind early on. His campaign said the approach was intentional, that voters were in no mood for fluff.
But voters want to have a feel for folks they place in high office. That never happened.
If Tiahrt wins, it’ll be a squeaker. If anyone’s walking away with this thing, it’s Moran.
2. State Senator Jean Schodorf, third wheel in the Republican primary in the 4th District, who made news three weeks ago when she contended the race was much closer than news polls indicated, is at it again. This time the KCWH poll done by Survey USA has front runners Wink Hartman and Mike Pompeo within the margin of error at 31 and 32 percent, respectively. Schodorf had 16 percent, while 9 percent of Republicans were undecided. The Schodorf poll, however, had Hartman at 19 percent, Schodorf with 18 percent and Pompeo in third with 16 percent. In that poll, 39 percent of those surveyed were still undecided. The differences are puzzling, but likely have much to do with the differences in how the polls were conducted.
In other Schodorf news, former U.S. Senator from Kansas Nancy Kassebaum Baker announced her endorsement of Schodorf last week. The question, as the Wichita Eagle Editorial Department blog asked, is whether or not it will matter to the voters of the 4th District. Right now, Schodorf's internal polls are seriously clouding the race.
3. Republican Secretary of State candidate J.R. Claeys has hit the airwaves with this ad in an effort to gain some recognition in the three way primary battle to be the state's top election official. He has the unenviable task of trying to defeat the author of the Arizona immigration law, UMKC law professor and former U.S. Congressional candidate Kris Kobach. Long-time Shawnee County Elections Commissioner and choice of former four-term Secretary of State Ron Thornburg, Elizabeth "Libby" Ensley is also in the race.
4. National stories of interest: a Politico story discussing the Democrats' strategy to pass new environmental laws, and media groups filing a 'friend of the court' brief in support of Fred Phelps' case before the Supreme Court.







